A step towards SDMs: A “couple‐and‐weigh” framework based on accessible data for biodiversity conservation and landscape planning

• DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13410
• Publication Date: 2021-09-30T23:08:34Z
• Authors: Mattia Iannella; Giulia Console; Francesco Cerasoli; Walter De Simone; Paola D’Alessandro; Maurizio Biondi
• Keywords: Environmental niche modelling; Subspecies; Land Cover; Species distribution

Abstract Aim The ongoing global change makes landscape planning and management of ecological corridors crucial to preserve biodiversity. We propose a workflow optimizing the use different data sources convert niche models (ENMs) into landscape‐focused species distribution (SDMs), using these latter compute corridors. infer connecting present occurrence localities future climatic refugia as well where extinct populations occurred. Also, continuous connectivity index is proposed assess current–future differences. Finally, we discuss possible applications our conservation, assessing capability established protected areas Location Europe. Methods As case study illustrate framework, database comprising Vipera ursinii , one most endangered European reptiles. obtain weighted SDMs for each four V. subspecies by coupling climate‐based ENMs with standardized frequencies along land altitude gradients through averaging in GIS. calculate current based on corresponding SDM. compare predictive performance “traditional” ENMs, including climate, topography predictors SDMs. Results Weighted outperform according Boyce index. are used connectivity, predicted decrease all scenarios connections may favour movements individuals to, example, suitable areas. Generally, cover low‐connectivity territories. Main conclusions “couple‐and‐weigh” approach could represent helpful tool investigate biogeography, conservation topics, it permits capitalize records accessible environmental narrowing target species’ potential distribution, estimated within realized post‐modelling GIS analyses, which turn improves estimation friction maps connectivity.