Projected distributions of Southern Ocean albatrosses, petrels and fisheries as a consequence of climatic change

• DOI: 10.1111/ecog.02590
• Publication Date: 2017-02-23T13:56:29Z
• Authors: L. Krüger; J. A. Ramos; J. C. Xavier; D. Grémillet; J. González‐Solís; M. V. Petry; R. A. Phillips; R. M. Wanless; V. H. Paiva
• Keywords: Albatross; Bycatch; Species distribution

Given the major ongoing influence of environmental change on oceans, there is a need to understand and predict future distributions marine species in order plan appropriate mitigation conserve vulnerable ecosystems. In this study we use tracking data from seven large seabird Southern Ocean (black‐browed albatross Thalassarche melanophris , grey‐headed T. chrysostoma northern giant petrel Macronectes halli southern M. giganteus Tristan Diomedea dabbenena wandering D. exulans white‐chinned Procellaria aequinoctialis fishing effort two types fisheries (characterised by low or high‐bycatch rates), model associations with variables (bathymetry, chlorophyll‐a concentration, sea surface temperature wind speed) through ensemble distribution models. We then projected these according four climate scenarios built Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change 2050 2100. The resulting projections were consistent across scenarios, indicating that strong likelihood poleward shifts seabirds, several range contractions (resulting shift northern, but no limit species). Current trends southerly are also set continue under at least until 2100; some may reflect habitat loss target already over‐fished. It particular concern highly threatened would increase their overlap where risk. Under such associated seabirds increases bycatch risk will require much‐improved management sensitive areas minimise impacts populations decline.