Climate drivers of bark beetle outbreak dynamics in Norway spruce forests

• DOI: 10.1111/ecog.02769
• Publication Date: 2016-11-10T15:01:50Z
• Authors: Lorenzo Marini; Bjørn Økland; Anna Maria Jönsson; Barbara Bentz; Allan Carroll; Beat Forster; Jean‐Claude Grégoire; Rainer Hurling; Louis Michel Nage...; Sigrid Netherer; Hans Peter Ravn; Aaron Weed; Martin Schroeder
• Keywords: Biotic component

Bark beetles are among the most devastating biotic agents affecting forests globally and several species expected to be favored by climate change. Given potential interactions of insect outbreaks with other abiotic disturbances, potentially strong impact changing disturbance regimes on forest resources, investigating climatic drivers destructive bark beetle is paramount importance. We analyzed 17 time‐series amount wood damaged Ips typographus , pest Norway spruce forests, collected across 8 European countries in last three decades. aimed quantify relative importance key explaining timber loss dynamics, also testing for possible synergistic effects. Local shared same drivers, including increasing summer rainfall deficit warm temperatures. Large availability storm‐felled trees previous year was strongly related an increase loss, likely providing alternative source breeding material. did not find any positive synergy outbreak drivers. On contrary, occurrence large storms reduced effect warming temperatures deficit. The surplus material boosted I. population size above density threshold required colonize kill healthy irrespective triggers. Importantly, we found negative dependence that may provide a mechanism decline after eruptions. Generality effects complex events different geographical areas suggests large‐scale can used as early warning indicators local probability.