Climate‐driven shifts in the distribution of koala‐browse species from the Last Interglacial to the near future

• DOI: 10.1111/ecog.04530
• Publication Date: 2019-05-25T04:30:36Z
• Authors: Farzin Shabani; Mohsen Ahmadi; Katharina J. Peters; Simon Haberle; Antoine Champreux; Frédérik Saltré; Corey J. A. Bradshaw
• Keywords: Phascolarctos cinereus; Before Present; Last Glacial Maximum

The koala's Phascolarctos cinereus distribution is currently restricted to eastern and south‐eastern Australia. However, fossil records dating from 70 ± 4 ka (ka = 10 3 yr) south‐western Australia the Nullarbor Plain are evidence of subpopulation extinctions in southwest at least after Last Interglacial (~128–116 ka). We hypothesize that koala sub‐population resulted eastward retraction main browse species response unsuitable climatic conditions. further posit a general reduction koala‐browse trees near future climate change. modelled 60 constructed set correlative models for five time periods: ka), Glacial Maximum (~23–19 Mid‐Holocene (~7–5 present (interpolations observed data, representative 1960–1990), 2070. based our projections on hindcasts one forecast variables extracted WorldClim two circulation (considering most pessimistic scenario high greenhouse‐gas emissions) topsoil clay fraction. used 17 dates specimens identified as reliable (± 4) 535 49) ka, with last appearance koalas southwest. simulated were their greatest extent suitability during Maximum, loss habitat occurring between present. predict similar spatial patterns change support hypothesis southwest, central South dominant long‐term changes. Future will likely increase extinction risk remaining ranges.