Observing climate change trends in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where

• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13152
• Publication Date: 2016-01-08T05:34:48Z
• Authors: Stephanie A. Henson; Claudie Beaulieu; Richard Lampitt
• Keywords: Biogeochemistry; Global Change

Abstract Understanding the influence of anthropogenic forcing on marine biosphere is a high priority. Climate change‐driven trends need to be accurately assessed and detected in timely manner. As part effort towards detection long‐term trends, network ocean observatories time series stations provide quality data for number key parameters, such as pH , oxygen concentration or primary production (PP). Here, we use an ensemble global coupled climate models assess temporal spatial scales over which observations eight biogeochemically relevant variables must made robustly detect trend. We find that, average, continuous are required between 14 ( ) 32 (PP) years distinguish change trend from natural variability. Regional differences extensive, with low latitudes Arctic generally needing shorter (<~30 years) than other areas. In addition, quantify ‘footprint’ existing planned stations, that area station representative broader region. Footprints largest sea surface temperature, but nevertheless only represents 9–15% surface. Our results present quantitative framework assessing adequacy current future observing networks monitoring responses ecosystem.