Adaptation of global land use and management intensity to changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide

• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14110
• Publication Date: 2018-02-27T14:57:39Z
• Authors: Peter Alexander; Sam Rabin; Peter Anthoni; Roslyn Henry; Thomas A. M. Pugh; Mark D. A. Rounse...; Almut Arneth
• Keywords: Intensity

Abstract Land use contributes to environmental change, but is also influenced by such changes. Climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) levels’ changes alter agricultural crop productivity, plant water requirements irrigation availability. The global food system needs respond adapt these changes, for example, altering practices, including the types or intensity of management, shifting cultivated areas within between countries. As impacts associated adaptation responses are spatially specific, understanding land requires productivity representations that capture spatial variations. impact variation in management fertiliser rates, be considered. To date, models have selected expansion intensification levels using relatively aggregate representations, typically at a regional level, not able characterise details differentiated responses. Here, we show results from novel modelling approach more detailed biophysically derived yield inputs with greater specificity than previously possible. couples dynamic vegetative model LPJ ‐ GUESS new PLUM v2), benchmarked against historical change 1970. outcomes 2100 were explored, suggesting increased climate forcing reduces required production, due fertilisation enhanced efficiency effects elevated concentrations, requiring substantial shifts local patterns production. suggest agriculture has capacity diminish negative gain benefits positive change. Consequently, may lower found previous studies where processes consideration constrained.