Climate change reduces resilience to fire in subalpine rainforests

• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14609
• Publication Date: 2019-03-26T05:32:20Z
• Authors: Michela Mariani; Michael‐Shawn Fle...; Simon Haberle; Hahjung Chin; Atun Zawadzki; Geraldine Jacobsen
• Keywords: Temperate rainforest

Abstract Climate change is affecting the distribution of species and functioning ecosystems. For that are slow growing poorly dispersed, climate can force a lag between distributions geographic their climatic envelopes, exposing to risk extinction. also governs resilience ecosystems disturbance, such as wildfire. Here we use modelling palaeoecology assess test impact vegetation–climate disequilibrium on an endangered fire‐sensitive rainforest community fires. First, modelled probability occurrence Athrotaxis spp. Nothofagus gunnii in Tasmania (hereon “montane rainforest”) function climate. We then analysed three pollen charcoal records spanning last 7,500 cal year BP from within both high ( n = 1) low 2) areas. Our study indicates 3,000 4,000 bp induced montane rainforests drove loss these communities. Current future likely shift envelopes this plant further, suggesting current high‐resilience locations will face reduction resilience. Coupled with forecast increasing fire activity southern temperate regions, heralds significant threat other growing, dispersed sensitive forest systems common mid latitudes.