Prevalence and transmission of COVID‐19 in community and household levels of Bangladesh: Longini and Koopman epidemic modelling approach

• DOI: 10.1111/ijcp.14921
• Publication Date: 2021-09-26T12:31:14Z
• Authors: Atikur Rahman; Nahyatul Marjan; Nahida Afroz; Nilima Afroz; Zakir Hossain
• Keywords: Pandemic

To estimate the prevalence of COVID-19 pandemic and its transmission rates among people in both community household levels Bangladesh.We use cross-sectional online survey data 2080 individuals, collected from 442 households during June to September 2020 Bangladesh. The Longini Koopman stochastic epidemic modelling approach was adapted for analysing data. validate results, a simulation study conducted using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method via Metropolis-Hastings algorithm context Bayesian framework.Overall, 15.1% (315 out 2080) This proportion higher smaller (size one: 40.0%, two: 35.7% three: 25.9%) than larger (four: 15.8%, five: 13.3%, six: 14.1%, seven: 12.5% eight: 8.7%, nine: 14.8% ten or eleven: 5.7%). rate (12.0%, 95% CI: 10.0% 13.0%) members (9.0%, 6.0% 11.0%).The susceptible individuals have risk infection is more responsible