Risk aggregation considering probabilistic and consequential interactions: A general formulation with computational cost handling

• DOI: 10.1111/risa.14253
• Publication Date: 2023-11-17T08:25:30Z
• Authors: Chunbing Bao; Meng Cai; Jianping Li; Qinyue Zheng; Dengsheng Wu; Qingchun Meng
• Keywords: Aggregation problem

Abstract Complicated interaction between risk events is the critical obstacle preventing accurate aggregation, which an important issue in management. Recent research integrates into aggregation with different perspectives and lacks a comprehensive discussion of this issue, making process not universal for diverse cases, especially subjective assessment contexts. Therefore, article proposes theoretically convincing method embedding types to support decision analysis more effectively. The main contributions are as follows: (a) in‐depth stricter definitions, measures, graphical descriptions developed ensure accuracy aggregation; (b) formal approach that could apply both objective contexts while elegantly interactions proposed; (c) additivity risks sets discussed detail conditions clarified; (d) quasi‐two/three‐additive approximately obtain aggregate value within sufficient reliability, proposed greatly reduce computational cost. To examine applicability general method, case study finally presented show complete its application decision‐making stage.