A multi‐regional, hierarchical‐tier mathematical model of the spread and control of COVID‐19 epidemics from epicentre to adjacent regions

• DOI: 10.1111/tbed.14019
• Publication Date: 2021-02-06T07:54:48Z
• Authors: Qinyue Zheng; Xinwei Wang; Chunbing Bao; Yunpeng Ji; Hua Liu; Qingchun Meng; Qiuwei Pan
• Keywords: Pandemic; Epicenter

Epicentres are the focus of COVID-19 research, whereas emerging regions with mainly imported cases due to population movement often neglected. Classical compartmental models useful, however, likely oversimplify complexity when studying epidemics. This study aimed develop a multi-regional, hierarchical-tier mathematical model for better understanding and heterogeneity spread control. By incorporating epidemiological flow data, we have successfully constructed SLIHR model. With this model, revealed insight into how was from epicentre Wuhan other in Mainland China based on large network data. comprehensive analysis effects different control measures, identified that Level 1 emergency response, community prevention application big data tools significantly correlate effectiveness local epidemic containment across provinces outside epicentre. In conclusion, our China, subsequent These findings bear important implications many countries understand respond their epidemics associated ongoing pandemic.