Transmission Dynamics of the Etiological Agent of SARS in Hong Kong: Impact of Public Health Interventions

• DOI: 10.1126/science.1086478
• Publication Date: 2003-05-27T00:15:41Z
• Authors: Steven Riley; Christophe Fraser; Christl A. Donnelly; Azra C. Ghani; Laith J. Abu-Raddad; Anthony J. Hedley; Gabriel M. Leung; Lai-Ming Ho; Tai-Hing Lam; Thuan Q. Thach; Patsy Chau; King-Pan Chan; Su-Vui Lo; Pak-Yin Leung; Thomas Tsang; William Ho; Koon-Hung Lee; Edith M. C. Lau; Neil M. Ferguson; Roy M. Anderson
• Keywords: Public Health Interventions; Etiology; 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak

We present an analysis of the first 10 weeks severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in Hong Kong. The to date has been characterized by two large clusters—initiated separate “super-spread” events (SSEs)—and ongoing community transmission. By fitting a stochastic model data on 1512 cases, including these clusters, we show that etiological agent SARS is moderately transmissible. Excluding SSEs, estimate 2.7 secondary infections were generated per case average at start epidemic, with substantial contribution from hospital Transmission rates fell during primarily as result reductions population contact and improved infection control, but also because more rapid attendance symptomatic individuals. As result, now decline, although continued vigilance necessary for this be maintained. Restrictions longer range movement are shown potentially useful additional control measure some contexts. most currently infected persons hospitalized, which highlights importance nosocomial