The Impact of Dropwindsonde Data on Typhoon Track Forecasts in DOTSTAR

• DOI: 10.1175/2007waf2006062.1
• Publication Date: 2008-01-03T15:45:58Z
• Authors: Chun-Chieh Wu; Kun-Hsuan Chou; Po-Hsiung Lin; Sim D. Aberson; Melinda S. Peng; Tetsuo Nakazawa
• Keywords: Typhoon; Dropsonde

Abstract Starting from 2003, a new typhoon surveillance program, Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR), was launched. During 2004, 10 missions eight typhoons were conducted successfully with 155 dropwindsondes deployed. In this study, impact of these dropwindsonde data on tropical cyclone track forecasts has been evaluated five models (four operational and one research models). All models, except Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) hurricane model, show positive that have forecasts. first 72 h, mean error reductions in National Centers Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS), Navy Operational Atmospheric Prediction (NOGAPS) Fleet Numerical Meteorology Oceanography Center (FNMOC), Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) Spectral Model (GSM) are 14%, 19%, respectively. The reduction Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) which initial conditions directly interpolated GFS forecast, is 16%. However, improvement GFDL model statistically insignificant 3%. 72-h-average ensemble above three global 22%, consistent forecast Atlantic cyclones missions. all, despite fact not significant due to limited number DOTSTAR cases overall added value improving over western North Pacific encouraging. Further progress targeted observations surveillances satellite data, modeling assimilation system, expected lead even greater