Diagnosis of the Initial and Forecast Errors in the Numerical Simulation of the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Emily (2005)

• DOI: 10.1175/2009waf2222195.1
• Publication Date: 2009-04-27T22:04:31Z
• Authors: Zhaoxia Pu; Xuanli Li; Edward J. Zipser
• Keywords: Eye; Dropsonde; Atmospheric models

Abstract A diagnostic study is conducted to examine the initial and forecast errors in a short-range numerical simulation of Hurricane Emily’s (2005) early rapid intensification. The conditions simulated hurricane vortices using high-resolution grids (1 3 km), generated from Advanced Research version Weather Forecasting (ARW) model its three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) systems, are compared with flight-level acquired U.S. Air Force C-130J aircraft data. Numerical results show that fails at predicting actual intensification hurricane, although intensity vortex matches observed intensity. Comparing data, unrealistic thermal convective structures storm eyewall found conditions. In addition, does not contract rapidly enough during simulation. Increasing model’s horizontal resolution 1 km can help produce deeper also more realistic eye structure. However, even still able fully resolve inner-core structures. To provide additional insight, set mesoscale reanalyses through available satellite dropsonde into ARW throughout whole period 6-h interval. It has been greatly improved by reanalysis; helps reproduce stronger wind, thermal, storm, contraction Results this suggest accurate representation vortex, especially conditions, necessary for