The Second Phase of the Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment: Soil Moisture Contributions to Subseasonal Forecast Skill

• DOI: 10.1175/2011jhm1365.1
• Publication Date: 2011-03-31T13:12:35Z
• Authors: R. D. Koster; S. P. P. Mahanama; T. J. Yamada; Gianpaolo Balsamo; A. A. Berg; M. Boisserie; P. A. Dirmeyer; F. J. Doblas-Reyes; G. Drewitt; C. T. Gordon; Z. Guo; J.-H. Jeong; W.-S. Lee; Z. Li; L. Luo; S. Malyshev; W. J. Merryfield; S. I. Seneviratne; T. Stanelle; B. J. J. M. van d...; F. Vitart; E. F. Wood
• Keywords: Initialization; Anomaly (physics); Madden–Julian oscillation

Abstract The second phase of the Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) is a multi-institutional numerical modeling experiment focused on quantifying, for boreal summer, subseasonal (out to two months) forecast skill precipitation and air temperature that can be derived from realistic initialization land surface states, notably soil moisture. An overview model behavior at global scale described here, along with determination characterization multimodel “consensus” skill. models show modest but significant in predicting temperatures, especially where rain gauge network dense. Given chief driver moisture, thereby assuming density reasonable proxy adequacy observational contributing moisture initialization, this result indeed highlights potential contribution enhanced observations prediction. Land-derived much weaker than temperature. temperature, some extent precipitation, increases magnitude initial anomaly. GLACE-2 results are examined further provide insight into asymmetric impacts wet dry