Blasts from the Past: Reimagining Historical Storms with Model Simulations to Modernize Dam Safety and Flood Risk Assessment

• DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-21-0133.1
• Publication Date: 2021-10-04T14:58:50Z
• Authors: Kelly Mahoney; Chesley McColl; Douglas M. Hultst...; William D. Kappel; Bill McCormick; Gilbert P. Compo
• Keywords: Dam failure; Return period

Abstract Accurate estimation of the potential “upper limit” for extreme precipitation is critical dam safety and water resources management, as failures pose significant risks to life property. Methods used estimate theoretical upper limit are often outdated in need updating. The rarity events means that old storms with limited observational data define bound precipitation. Observations many important spatial temporal coverage, sometimes dubious quality. This reduces confidence flood hazard assessments evaluations leads unknown or uncertain societal risk. paper describes a method generating applying ensembles high-resolution, state-of-the-art numerical model simulations historical past meet contemporary stakeholder needs. was designed part research-to-application-focused partnership project update state rules Colorado New Mexico. results demonstrated multiple user benefits were applied directly into storm analyses utilized rainfall estimation, diagnostics developed ultimately rules, officially passed January 2020. We discuss how what started prototype research foray specific may inform wider adoption risk assessment, event downscaling performed offers near-term, implementable improvements current estimates can better serve society today.