Projecting Future Precipitation in the Yellow River Basin Based on CMIP6 Models

• DOI: 10.1175/jamc-d-22-0022.1
• Publication Date: 2022-09-22T00:59:44Z
• Authors: Zhouliang Sun; Yanli Liu; Jianyun Zhang; Hua Chen; Zhangkang Shu; Xin Chen; Junliang Jin; Tiesheng Guan; Cuishan Liu; Ruimin He; Guoqing Wang
• Keywords: Anomaly (physics); Quantile

Abstract Water resources severely constrain high-quality development in the Yellow River basin (YRB). Predicting trend of precipitation on basis satisfying precision has important guiding significance for future regional development. Using projected 12 CMIP6 models, this study applied most appropriate correction method each model from four quantile-mapping methods and changes annual YRB three key regions. The projection uncertainty was quantitatively assessed by addressing spread (MS) range. anomaly under all scenarios would increase increasing rates (the linear coefficient) Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 126 (SSP126) to SSP585 were 30–62, 60–103, 84–122, 134–204 mm (100 yr) −1 , respectively. largest sediment-yielding region, which reached about 40–60 2031–60 70–125 2061–90. 400-mm isohyet move continuously northwest future. quantified MS reduced 85.9%–94.6%, ranges less than 50 (about 10% climatology) parts YRB. From YRB, it can be inferred that arid region will shrink. It may a good opportunity implement ecological conservation successfully. Significance Statement We want understand spatial–temporal evolution pattern (YRB) climate change scenarios. In future, regions increase, with most, Our findings confirm patterns significantly These guide protection social economic Future research should focus adaptation strategies agricultural production change.