Exploring Perturbed Physics Ensembles in a Regional Climate Model

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-11-00275.1
• Publication Date: 2012-02-08T22:13:44Z
• Authors: Omar Bellprat; Sven Kotlarski; Daniel Lüthi; Christoph Schär
• Keywords: 13. Climate action; 01 natural sciences; 7. Clean energy; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

Abstract Perturbed physics ensembles (PPEs) have been widely used to assess climate model uncertainties and provided new estimates of sensitivity parametric uncertainty in state-of-the-art models. So far, mainly global models were generate PPEs, little work has conducted with regional This paper discusses the parameter two PPEs a driven by reanalysis data for present over Europe. The is evaluated variables 2-m temperature, precipitation, total cloud cover, focus on annual cycle, interannual variability, selected extremes. authors show that simulated spread encompasses observations at scale terms cycle observational taken into account. To rank skill metric proposed, which takes account natural variability. generalization prediction index (CPI) compared metrics other studies. consideration particularly important cover reveals current do not allow systematic evaluation high precipitation intensities entire European domain. framework additionally identify parameters, are interest an objective calibration.