Performance of CMIP3 and CMIP5 GCMs to Simulate Observed Rainfall Characteristics over the Western Himalayan Region

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-16-0774.1
• Publication Date: 2017-07-07T17:20:18Z
• Authors: Jitendra Kumar Meher; Lalu Das; Javed Akhter; Rasmus E. Benestad; Abdelkader Mezghani
• Keywords: Annual cycle

Abstract The western Himalayan region (WHR) was subject to a significant negative trend in the annual and monsoon rainfall during 1902–2005. Annual seasonal change over WHR of India estimated using 22 rain gauge station data from Meteorological Department. performance 13 global climate models (GCMs) phase 3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) 42 GCMs CMIP5 evaluated through multiple analysis: evaluation mean cycle, cycles interannual variability, spatial patterns, trends, signal-to-noise ratio. In general, were more skillful terms simulating cycle variability compared CMIP3 GCMs. failed reproduce observed trend, whereas approximately 50% reproduced statistical distribution short-term (30 yr) estimates than for longer-term (99 trends both able simulate premonsoon winter months. Based on performance, each model given an overall rank, which puts high-resolution version MIROC3.2 [MIROC3.2 (hires)] MIROC5 at top CMIP5, respectively. Robustness ranking judged sensitivity analysis, indicated that ranks independent process adding or removing any individual method. It also revealed analysis not robust method judging performances as other methods.