Biogeophysical Effects of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Not Detectable in Warmest Month

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0391.1
• Publication Date: 2022-11-30T20:34:56Z
• Authors: Luke Grant; Lukas Gudmundsson; Edouard L. Davin; David M. Lawrence; Nicolas Vuichard; Eddy Robertson; Roland Séférian; Aurélien Ribes; Annette L. Hirsch; Wim Thiery
• Keywords: Land Cover; Earth system science; Temporal scales; Global Change

Abstract Land-use and land-cover changes (hereafter simply “land use”) alter climates biogeophysically by affecting surface fluxes of energy water. Yet, near-surface temperature responses to land use across observational versus model-based studies spatial-temporal scales can be inconsistent. Here we assess the prevalence historical signal daily maximum temperatures averaged over warmest month year ( t LU ) using regularized optimal fingerprinting for detection attribution. We observations from Climatic Research Unit Berkeley Earth alongside simulations with without phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project reconstruct an experiment representing effects on climate. To at spatially resolved continental global scales, aggregate all input data reference regions continents, respectively. At both does not comprise a significantly detectable set forcings two four system models their multimodel mean. Furthermore, principal component analysis, find that is mostly composed nonlocal rather than its local effects. These findings show that, relevant climate attribution, uncertainties in model representations are too high relative internal variability confidently use.