A Comparison of Adaptive Observing Guidance for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

• DOI: 10.1175/mwr3193.1
• Publication Date: 2006-09-21T19:30:04Z
• Authors: S. J. Majumdar; S. D. Aberson; C. H. Bishop; R. Buizza; M. S. Peng; C. A. Reynolds
• Keywords: African easterly jet; Middle latitudes; Extratropical cyclone; Tropical cyclone scales; Dropsonde; Atlantic hurricane

Abstract Airborne adaptive observations have been collected for more than two decades in the neighborhood of tropical cyclones, to attempt improve short-range forecasts cyclone track. However, only simple subjective strategies used, and utility objective remains unexplored. Two techniques that used extensively midlatitude observing programs, current strategy based on ensemble deep-layer mean (DLM) wind variance, are compared quantitatively using metrics. The transform Kalman filter (ETKF) uses ensembles from NCEP ECMWF. Total-energy singular vectors (TESVs) computed by ECMWF Naval Research Laboratory, their respective global models. Comparisons 78 guidance products 2-day during 2004 Atlantic hurricane season made, both continental localized scales relevant synoptic surveillance missions. NRL TESV identifies similar large-scale target regions 90% cases, but less each other local environment (56% cases) with a stringent criterion similarity. For major hurricanes, all usually indicate targets close storm center. weaker selects those ETKF (DLM variance) 30% (20%) cases. is like provided (and DLM hurricanes cyclones. Minor differences these results occur when different metric ranking fixed storm-relative used.