Perimeter confinements of basic health zones and COVID-19 incidence in Madrid, Spain

• DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-12626-x
• Publication Date: 2022-02-03T00:04:13Z
• Authors: García-García David; Herranz-Hernandez...; Rojas-Benedicto A...; León-Gómez Inmacu...; Larrauri Amparo; Peñuelas Marina; Guerrero-Vadillo ...; Ramis Rebeca; Gómez-Barroso Diana
• Keywords: Perimeter; Pandemic; Cumulative incidence; Biostatistics

Abstract Background A unique policy of perimeter closures Basic Health Zones (small administrative health units) was implemented in the Autonomous Community Madrid from September 21st 2020 to May 23rd 2021 face COVID-19 pandemic. Aim To assess impact local confinements on 14-days cumulative incidence SARS-CoV-2 during second wave pandemic Madrid, Spain. Methods We compare errors estimation two families mathematical models: ones that include as explanatory covariables and do not, search a significant improvement one family over other. incorporate leave-one-out cross-validation, at each step this process we select best model AIC score 15 differently tuned ones. Results The models provided very similar estimations, for 1- 3-weeks delay observed incidence, also when restricting analysis only those were subject least closure time under study. In all cases correlation between yielded by both higher than 0.98 (±10 − 3 95% CI), average difference estimated smaller 1.49 (±0.33 CI). Conclusion Our suggests Zone did not have effect epidemic curve Madrid.