Risk assessment and integrated surveillance of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Russia based on Monte Carlo simulation

• DOI: 10.1186/s12917-021-02967-x
• Publication Date: 2021-08-10T09:03:38Z
• Authors: Jianying Wang; Jiahui Chen; Shuwen Zhang; Yanting Ding; Minjia Wang; Hui Zhang; Ruirui Liang; Qin Chen; Bing Niu
• Keywords: Disease Surveillance

Abstract Background Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious of livestock worldwide. Russia big agricultural country with wide geographical area where FMD outbreaks have become an obstacle for the development animal and products trade. In this study, we aimed to assess export risk from Russia. Results After simulation by Monte Carlo, results showed that probability cattle infected in surveillance zone (Surrounding areas no epidemic has occurred within prescribed time limit, construction buffer called zone.) was 1.29 × 10 − 6 . The at least one positive case exported per year %. predicted number 39,530 - 50,576 0.06. A key node impact model occurrence Russian zone. By semi-quantitative calculation, defense system defects 1.84 5 , indicating there potential prevention control measures spatial scan found most likely cluster ( P < 0.01) Eastern Siberian Central regions. Conclusions There FMDV among Russia, infection rate monitored factor. Understanding relevant will help policymakers develop targeted plans.