Vulnerability of Syrian refugees in Lebanon to COVID-19: quantitative insights

• DOI: 10.1186/s13031-021-00349-6
• Publication Date: 2021-03-05T19:03:00Z
• Authors: Fouad M. Fouad; Stephen J. McCall; Houssein Ayoub; Laith J. Abu-Raddad; Ghina R. Mumtaz
• Keywords: Vulnerability

Abstract Lebanon, a middle-income country with ongoing political turmoil, unstable economic situation, and fragmented under-resourced health system, hosts about one million Syrian refugees since 2011. While the is currently experiencing substantial COVID-19 epidemic spread, no outbreaks have been reported yet among refugees. However, testing of this population remains limited exposure levels are high given dire living conditions close interaction host community. Here, we use quantitative insights transmission dynamics to outline risk contextual factors that may modulate vulnerability in Lebanon potentially large epidemics. live contact community, their favorable for spread. We found crowding within refugee households those informal tented settlements, inadequate water supply sanitation, masks, access care, community awareness directly impact important parameters dynamics, leading larger scale. Poverty, stigma, fear legal consequences further exacerbate vulnerability. The relatively prevalence non-communicable diseases could also affect severity disease infected. Mathematical modeling simulations conducted illustrated even modest increases result increase incidence cumulative total number infections absence interventions. In conclusion, while young age structure might play protective role against scale disease-burden potential epidemic, due several warrants an immediate response group. Local international actors required mobilize coordinate efforts prevent COVID-19, mitigate its amongst vulnerable populations globally.