One-year and three-year mortality prediction in adult major blunt trauma survivors: a National Retrospective Cohort Analysis

• DOI: 10.1186/s13049-018-0497-y
• Publication Date: 2018-04-18T08:16:46Z
• Authors: Ting Hway Wong; Nivedita Vikas Na...; Hai V. Nguyen; Gek Hsiang Lim; David Bruce Matchar; Dennis Chuen Chai...; Nicolas K. K. King; Marcus Eng Hock Ong
• Keywords: Blunt trauma; Nomogram

Survivors of trauma are at increased risk dying after discharge. Studies have found that age, head injury, injury severity, falls and co-morbidities predict long-term mortality. The objective our study was to build a nomogram predictor 1-year 3-year mortality for major blunt adult survivors the index hospitalization. Using data from Singapore National Trauma Registry, 2011–2013, we analyzed adults aged 18 over, admitted with an severity score (ISS) 12 or more, who survived hospitalization, linked death registry data. population randomly divided 60/40 into separate construction validation datasets, model built in dataset, then tested dataset. Multivariable logistic regression used analyze Of 3414 survivors, 247 (7.2%) died within 1 year, 551 (16.1%) 3 years injury. Age (OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.05–1.07, p < 0.001), male gender 1.53, 1.12–2.10, 0.01), low fall 0.5 m less 3.48, 2.06–5.87, Charlson comorbidity 2 more 2.26, 1.38–3.70, diabetes 1.31, 1.68–2.52, = 0.04), cancer 1.76, 0.94–3.32, 0.08), neck AIS 1.79, 1.13–2.84, length hospitalization 30 days 1.99, 1.02–3.86, 0.04) were predictors This had c-statistic 0.85. Similar factors significant mortality, which 0.83. Both models validated on second overall accuracy 0.94 0.84 respectively. Adult can be risk-stratified discharge support.