Evaluating species richness, turnover, and range shifts under climate change for fluvial fishes in Northeastern and Midwestern USA

• DOI: 10.1186/s13717-025-00612-1
• Publication Date: 2025-04-23T06:15:35Z
• Authors: Hao Yu; Dana M. Infante; Arthur R. Cooper; Jared A. Ross

Abstract Background Fluvial fish habitat in the Northeastern and Midwestern U.S. is substantially affected by natural landscape factors anthropogenic stressors, with climate change expected to alter influences exacerbate stressor effects. To conserve fluvial species future, it crucial understand which habitats will be most strongly influenced changing climate, are sensitive change, how changes individual affect entire assemblages. answer these questions, we modeled distributions under projected could suitability of for 55 widely distributed fishes differing thermal preferences region. Using boosted regression tree models, predicted at a stream reach scale using four contemporary variables including annual mean air temperature, precipitation, variation monthly temperature precipitation along seven variables. We then used values from eight general circulation models (GCMs) during 2041–2080 evaluate potential patterns richness, turnover, range shifts across study Results Most cold-water cool-water were lose habitat; however, loss also occurred certain small-bodied warm-water species. The percentage richness all reaches ranged − 40.4 33.93%, regions major losses occurring southern portions coast Midwest regions. Species turnover 0 43.5% substantial upper Midwest. Conclusions Temperature influence distribution substantially. Our findings provide multiple measures describing community aid management conservation future.