Mortality Change among Less Educated Americans

• DOI: 10.1257/app.20190297
• Publication Date: 2022-09-28T12:09:50Z
• Authors: Paul Novosad; Charlie Rafkin; Sam Asher
• Keywords: 03 medical and health sciences; 0302 clinical medicine; 1. No poverty

Measurements of mortality change among less educated Americans can be biased because the least groups (e.g., dropouts) become smaller and more negatively selected over time. We show that changes at constant education percentiles bounded with minimal assumptions. Middle-age increases non-Hispanic Whites from 1992 to 2018 are driven almost entirely by bottom 10 percent distribution. Drivers differ substantially across groups. Deaths despair explain most young Whites, but older Blacks. Our bounds applicable in many other contexts. (JEL I12, I26, J15)