[Pathway and Policy for China's Provincial Carbon Emission Peak].

• DOI: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202208273
• Publication Date: 2023-08-08
• Authors: Ankang Miao; Yue Yuan; Han Wu; Xin Ma; Chenyu Shao
• Keywords: Divisia index; Carbon fibers; Decoupling (probability); Emission intensity

An effective way for China to achieve a carbon emission peak by 2030 is encourage developed regions take the lead in attaining peaking at regional level. Considering Jiangsu Province as an example, this study established provincial low emissions analysis platform (LEAP-Jiangsu) model. It combined improved multilevel logarithmic mean Divisia index (M-LMDI) model, Tapio decoupling and synergistic effect of pollution reduction model explore key influencing factors paths. The M-LMDI was used analyze historical future Province. Based on results planning objectives, LEAP-Jiangsu involving various development scenarios predict time value peaks. models were clarify relationship between economic development, carbon, air pollutant reduction. prediction demonstrated that total primary energy demand 2035 predicted be approximately 401.2-474.6 Mt, final would 319.2-382.3 Mt. most likely goal 2025-2030, 815.3-845.7 contribution rates conservation measures such intensity reduction, industrial structure optimization, terminal electrification improvement, adjustment 33.1%, 26.8%, 21%, 15.2%, respectively.