Trade-off between local transmission and long-range dispersal drives infectious disease outbreak size in spatially structured populations

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008009
• Publication Date: 2020-07-06T17:35:15Z
• Authors: Elisa Benincà; Thomas Hagenaars; Gert Jan Boender; Jan van de Kassteele; Michiel van Boven
• Keywords: Metapopulation; Spatial epidemiology; Occupancy; Scan statistic; Disease Transmission

Transmission of infectious diseases between immobile hosts (e.g., plants, farms) is strongly dependent on the spatial distribution and distance-dependent probability transmission. As interplay these factors poorly understood, we use process transmission modelling to investigate how epidemic size shaped by host clustering range We find that for a given degree individual-level infectivity, an occurs after introduction generally higher if predominantly local. However, local also impedes transfer infection new clusters. A consequence total number infections maximal intermediate. In highly clustered populations, dynamics determined clusters hosts, whereby act as multiplier infection. show in such metapopulation model sometimes provides good approximation size, using probabilities extinction, final clusters, cluster-to-cluster real-world example analyse case avian influenza poultry farms Netherlands.