Epidemiological modeling of SARS-CoV-2 in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) reveals conditions for introduction and widespread transmission

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012263
• Publication Date: 2024-07-12T17:38:38Z
• Authors: Elias Rosenblatt; Jonathan D. Cook; Graziella V. DiRenzo; Evan H. Campbell ...; Fernando Arce; Kim M. Pepin; F. Javiera Rudolph; Michael C. Runge; Susan Shriner; Daniel P. Walsh; Brittany A. Mosher
• Keywords: Odocoileus

Emerging infectious diseases with zoonotic potential often have complex socioecological dynamics and limited ecological data, requiring integration of epidemiological modeling surveillance. Although our understanding SARS-CoV-2 has advanced considerably since its detection in late 2019, the factors influencing introduction transmission wildlife hosts, particularly white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ), remain poorly understood. We use a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible model to investigate spillover risk wild captive populations across various simulated scenarios. found that scenarios pose higher from humans into herds subsequent among deer, compared herds. However, even herds, is substantial enough sustain infections. Furthermore, we demonstrate strength influences outbreak characteristics only certain extent. Transmission was frequently sufficient for widespread outbreaks populations, regardless initial level introduction. also explore fence line interactions between elevate metrics lowest sustained transmission. Our results indicate could be introduced maintained range circumstances based on testing risks approach findings will aid One Health strategies mitigate persistent spillback humans.