Predicting the future climate-related prevalence and distribution of crop pests and diseases affecting major food crops in Zambia

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000064
• Publication Date: 2023-01-09T18:21:24Z
• Authors: Wilson Nguru; Caroline Mwongera
• Keywords: Representative Concentration Pathways; Crop Protection

Environmental factors determine the suitability of natural habitats for crop pests and often facilitate their proliferation that diseases they carry. Crop damage food crops, significantly reducing yields these commodities threatening security in developing, predominantly agricultural economies. Given its impact on environmental factors, climate change is an important determinant pest disease distribution. This study uses Targeting Tools, a analysis mapping toolkit, to explore potential select linked associated diseases’ proliferation. Based existing literature, prediction modeling was performed 21 key major crops Zambian consumption. Future changes habitat were mapped based optimal temperature relative humidity conditions Results project there will be overall increased geographical spread suitable (and as follows, diseases) thrive warmer environments. By 2030s, increasingly across Zambia, with higher likelihood occurrence projected under RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 8.5. cooler environments experience decreasing but transition slower decrease 2050s 2.6 4.5. Overall continue rise slowly 2050s; RCP 8.5 shows warm environments, decreased The results highlight need future-facing, long-term adaptation mitigation measures create less microclimates diseases.