Temperature impacts on dengue incidence are nonlinear and mediated by climatic and socioeconomic factors: A meta-analysis

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000152
• Publication Date: 2024-03-07T18:34:15Z
• Authors: Devin Kirk; Samantha Straus; Marissa L. Childs; Mallory Harris; Lisa Couper; T. Jonathan Davies; Coreen Forbes; Alyssa-Lois Gehman; Maya L. Groner; Christopher Harley; Kevin D. Lafferty; Van Savage; Eloise Skinner; Mary O’Connor; Erin A. Mordecai
• Keywords: 0303 health sciences; 03 medical and health sciences

Temperature can influence mosquito-borne diseases like dengue. These effects are expected to vary geographically and over time in both magnitude direction may interact with other environmental variables, making it difficult anticipate changes response climate change. Here, we investigate global variation temperature–dengue relationship by analyzing published correlations between temperature dengue matching them remotely sensed climatic socioeconomic data. We found that the correlation was most positive at intermediate (near 24°C) temperatures, as predicted from an independent mechanistic model. Positive associations were strongest when population density high decreased infection burden rainfall mean variation, suggesting alternative limiting factors on transmission. Our results show while context-dependent they also predictable thermal biology of transmission its social mediators.