A comparative study of influenza surveillance systems and administrative data in England during the 2022–2023 season

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0003627
• Publication Date: 2024-09-20T17:32:11Z
• Authors: Jonathon Mellor; Rachel Christie; James Guilder; Robert S. Paton; Suzanne Elgohari; Conall Watson; Sarah R. Deeny; Thomas Ward
• Keywords: Proxy (statistics); Pandemic; Hospital bed

Accurate and representative surveillance is essential for understanding the impact of influenza on healthcare systems. During 2022–2023 season, Northern Hemisphere experienced its most significant epidemic wave since onset COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Concurrently, new systems, developed response to pandemic, became available within health services. In this study, we analysed per capita admission rates from National Health Service hospital Trusts across four systems England during winter 2022–2023. We examined differences reporting timeliness, data completeness, regional coverage, modelling key metrics including maximum rates, cumulative seasonal admissions, growth by fitting generalised additive models at national levels. From capita, find that different yield varying estimates epidemiological metrics, both spatially temporally. While these generally align rate trends, discrepancies emerge subnational level, particularly estimates, with notable issues observed London East England. The rapid decay phases contributed higher uncertainty especially regions variable quality. study highlights choice system can significantly influence interpretation where disparities may mask true dynamics. Comparing multiple sources enhances our epidemics limitations relying a single system.