Persistently high TB prevalence in Nairobi County neighbourhoods, 2015–2022

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0003849
• Publication Date: 2025-02-18T18:45:04Z
• Authors: Jane R. Ong'ang'o; Jennifer Ross; Richard Kiplimo; Cheryl Kerama; Khai Hoan Tram; Jerry S. Zifodya; Nellie Mukiri; Erick Nyadimo; Martha Njoroge; Aiban Ronoh; Immaculate Kathure; Dickson Kirathe; Thomas R. Hawn; Videlis Nduba; David J. Horne
• Keywords: Public aspects of medicine; RA1-1270

National and sub-national population-based surveys, when performed at intervals, may assess important changes in TB prevalence. In 2022 we re-surveyed nine Nairobi County neighbourhoods that were previously surveyed 2015. We aimed to determine pulmonary prevalence, compare prevalence 2015 estimates, evaluate risk groups. Participants who reported cough of any duration and/or whose chest x-ray suggested submitted sputum for smear microscopy, Xpert Ultra, liquid culture. defined prevalent as Mycobacterium tuberculosis detection by or culture, excepting individuals only trace positive. Our methods differed from 2015, which used solid media, MTB/RIF, >2 weeks. calculated using random-effects logistic regression models with missing value imputations inverse probability weighting. among 6369 participants, 1582 ≥1 sample, whom 42 (2.7%) had TB, a weighted 806/100,000 (95% confidence interval (CI), 518–1096). An additional 31 (2.0%) participants tested Ultra trace-positive/culture-negative. For comparison excluded (n = 2) criterion was <2 There no evidence decline overall 2022. men high (1301/100,000) remained compared (p-value <0.05). The age group the highest estimated people ages 45–54 years. Among cough, 76% not sought health care. Dissimilar other serial surveys showed declines found persistently over 7-year period County. Limitations this study include methodology between two complex effects COVID-19 pandemic.