Estimation of Newborn Risk for Child or Adolescent Obesity: Lessons from Longitudinal Birth Cohorts

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0049919
• Publication Date: 2012-11-28T16:55:52Z
• Authors: Anita Morandi; David Meyre; Stéphane Lobbens; Ken Kleinman; Marika Kaakinen; Sheryl L. Rifas-S...; Vincent Vatin; Stefan Gaget; Anneli Pouta; Anna-Liisa Hartik...; Jaana Laitinen; Aimo Ruokonen; Shikta Das; Anokhi Ali Khan; Paul Elliott; Claudio Maffeis; Matthew W. Gillman; Marjo-Riitta Järv...; Philippe Froguel
• Keywords: Longitudinal Study

Prevention of obesity should start as early possible after birth. We aimed to build clinically useful equations estimating the risk later in newborns, a first step towards focused prevention against global epidemic.We analyzed lifetime Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986 (NFBC1986) (N = 4,032) draw predictive for childhood and adolescent from traditional factors (parental BMI, birth weight, maternal gestational weight gain, behaviour social indicators), genetic score built 39 BMI/obesity-associated polymorphisms. performed validation analyses retrospective cohort 1,503 Italian children prospective 1,032 U.S. children.In NFBC1986, cumulative accuracy predicting obesity, persistent into adolescence was good: AUROC 0·78[0·74-0.82], 0·75[0·71-0·79] 0·85[0·80-0·90] respectively (all p<0·001). Adding produced discrimination improvements ≤1%. The NFBC1986 equation remained acceptably accurate when applied (AUROC 0·70[0·63-0·77] 0·73[0·67-0·80] respectively) two additional newly drawn datasets showed good respective cohorts 0·74[0·69-0·79] 0·79[0·73-0·84]) three were converted simple Excel calculators potential clinical use.This study provides example handy tools newborns by means easily recorded information, while it shows that currently known variants have very little usefulness such prediction.