Uncertainty of Monetary Valued Ecosystem Services – Value Transfer Functions for Global Mapping

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0148524
• Publication Date: 2016-03-03T13:47:20Z
• Authors: Stefan Schmidt; Ameur M. Manceur; Ralf Seppelt
• Keywords: 0301 basic medicine; Conservation of Natural Resources; Science; Climate; Q; R; Uncertainty; Biodiversity; 15. Life on land; 6. Clean water; 03 medical and health sciences; Water Supply; 13. Climate action; Government Regulation; Medicine; Humans; Recreation; Regression Analysis; Biomass; Ecosystem; Research Article

Growing demand of resources increases pressure on ecosystem services (ES) and biodiversity. Monetary valuation ES is frequently seen as a decision-support tool by providing explicit values for unconsidered, non-market goods services. Here we present global value transfer functions using meta-analytic framework the synthesis 194 case studies capturing 839 monetary ES. For 12 variance could be explained with subset 93 study- site-specific variables utilizing boosted regression trees. This provides first quantification uncertainties transferability valuations. Models explain from 18% (water provision) to 44% (food provide statistically reliable extrapolations 70% 91% terrestrial earth surface. Although application different methods source uncertainty, found evidence that assuming homogeneity ecosystems major error in function models. Food provision positively correlated better life domains indicating positive conditions human well-being. Water recreation service show weak ownerships affect other common negatively (e.g. non-privately owned forests). Furthermore, support shifting baseline hypothesis valuing climate regulation. Ecological societal vulnerability determine extreme event prevention. Valuation habitat indicators characterizing less favorable areas. Our analysis represents stepping stone establish standardized integration reporting valid benefit an important component decision support.