Improving estimates of district HIV prevalence and burden in South Africa using small area estimation techniques

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0212445
• Publication Date: 2019-02-22T18:31:41Z
• Authors: Steve Gutreuter; Ehimario Igumbor; Njeri Wabiri; Mitesh Desai; Lizette Durand
• Keywords: Small Area Estimation

Many countries, including South Africa, have implemented population-based household surveys to estimate HIV prevalence and the burden of infection. Most are designed provide reliable estimates down only first subnational geopolitical level which, in is composed nine provinces. However needed at least second order better target delivery care, treatment prevention services. The Africa 52 districts. Achieving adequate precision therefore requires either a substantial increase survey sample size or use model-based estimation capable incorporating other pre-existing data. Our purpose demonstration efficacy relatively simple small-area districts using data from African National Prevalence, Incidence Behavior Survey, 2012, district-level obtained testing pregnant women who attended antenatal care (ANC) clinics 2012 demographic best-fitting model included ANC dependency ratio as out-of-survey predictors. key finding that was superior auxiliary covariate, provided substantially improved many general population. Inclusion spatial simultaneously autoregressive covariance structure did not result estimation.