Detection of municipalities at-risk of Lyme disease using passive surveillance of Ixodes scapularis as an early signal: A province-specific indicator in Canada

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0212637
• Publication Date: 2019-02-19T18:52:46Z
• Authors: Salima Gasmi; Nicholas H. Ogden; Marion Ripoche; Patrick A. Leighton; Robbin L. Lindsay; Mark P. Nelder; Erin Rees; Catherine Bouchard; Linda Vrbova; Richard Rusk; Curtis Russell; Yann Pelcat; Samir Mechai; Serge-Olivier Kotchi; Jules K. Koffi
• Keywords: Ixodes scapularis; Tick-borne disease

Lyme disease, the most commonly reported vector-borne disease in North America, is caused by spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto, which transmitted Ixodes scapularis eastern Canada and pacificus western Canada. Recently, northward range expansion of I. ticks, south-eastern Canada, has resulted a dramatic increase incidence human disease. Detecting emerging areas risk allows public health to target prevention efforts. We analysed passive tick surveillance data from Ontario Manitoba i) assess relationship between total numbers submissions humans, number cases, ii) develop province-specific acarological indicators that can be used generate surveillance-based maps. also assessed associations nymphal only case incidence. Using General Estimating Equation regression, (total nymphs only) each census sub-division (CSD) cases was positively correlated highly significant two provinces (P ≤ 0.001). The over five years discriminated CSDs with ≥ 3 those < high accuracy when using submission (Receiver Operating Characteristics area under curve [AUC] = 0.89) moderate (AUC 0.78) only. In optimal cut-off point 12 CSD (Sensitivity 0.82, Specificity 0.84), while ticks 0.71, 0.79) suggesting regional variability acquiring an bite. performances developed this study for support ability provide early signal existence regions where pathogens they transmit are expanding their range.