Neotropical cloud forests and páramo to contract and dry from declines in cloud immersion and frost

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0213155
• Publication Date: 2019-04-17T17:45:39Z
• Authors: E. H. Helmer; E. A. Gerson; L. Scott Baggett; Benjamin J. Bird; Thomas S. Ruzycki; Shannon M. Voggesser
• Keywords: Cloud forest

Clouds persistently engulf many tropical mountains at elevations cool enough for clouds to form, creating isolated areas with frequent fog and mist. Under these conditions, thousands of unique species have evolved in what are known as montane cloud forests (TMCF) páramo. Páramo comprises a set alpine ecosystems that occur above TMCF from about 11° N 9° S along the Americas continental divide. on all continents island chains climates increasingly threatened by climate land-use change. Climate change could impact primary feature distinguishing ecosystems, immersion. But where direction immersion páramo will fundamental unknowns. Prior studies few sites suggest increase some places while declining others. Other unknowns include extent deforestation protected unprotected forest climatic zones, compared projected Here we use new empirical approach combining relative humidity, frost, novel application maximum watershed elevation project Representative greenhouse gas emissions Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 8.5. Results <25–45 yr, 70–86% dry or be subject tree invasion, declines shrink 57–80% Neotropical TMCF, including 100% across Mexico, Central America, Caribbean, much Northern South parts Southeast Brazil. These estimates rise 86% 98% <45–65 yr if continue rising throughout 21st century. We also find zones largely forested, but most deforested undergo least only 1% places. Declines dominate Neotropics.