An assessment of climate change vulnerability for Important Bird Areas in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Arc

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0214573
• Publication Date: 2019-04-17T17:57:58Z
• Authors: Melanie A. Smith; Benjamin K. Sulle...; William C. Koeppen; Kathy J. Kuletz; Heather M. Renner; Aaron J. Poe
• Keywords: Vulnerability

Recently available downscaled ocean climate models for the Bering Sea and Aleutian Arc offer opportunity to assess vulnerability upper trophic level consumers such as marine birds. We analyzed seasonal annual spatial projections from three two physical variables (seawater temperature sea ice) forage (large copepods, euphausiids, benthic infauna), comparing projected conditions a recent time period (2003-2012) future (2030-2039). focused analyses on core areas within globally significant Important Bird Areas, developed indices of magnitude change agreement among models. All indicated high degree seawater warming (highest in central eastern Islands) ice loss (most Sea) across scales, we found those changes be every species virtually area assessed. There was low model variables; while majority were identified vulnerable by one or more (72% large 73% 94% very few agreed upon all (only 6% euphausiid-forager areas). Based magnitude-agreement score, euphausiid biomass decline affected fulmars, gulls, auklets, especially along outer shelf Islands. Benthic eiders inner shelf, copepod storm-petrels auklets western Aleutians. Overall, 12% Modeling interpreting biological parameters project dynamics remains complex; strong signal raised concerns about lagged responses distribution shifts, breeding failures, mortality events, population declines.