Climate change will reduce suitable Caatinga dry forest habitat for endemic plants with disproportionate impacts on specialized reproductive strategies

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0217028
• Publication Date: 2019-05-29T17:30:47Z
• Authors: Jéssica Luiza Sou...; Oswaldo Cruz-Neto; Carlos A. Peres; Marcelo Tabarelli; Ariadna Valentina...
• Keywords: Species distribution

Global climate change alters the dynamic of natural ecosystems and directly affects species distributions, persistence diversity. The impacts may lead to dramatic changes in biotic interactions, such as pollination seed dispersal. Life history traits are extremely important consider vulnerability a change, producing more robust models than those based primarily on distributions. Here, we hypothesized that rising temperatures aridity will reduce suitable habitats for endemic flora Caatinga, most diverse dry tropical forest Earth. Specifically, with specialized reproductive (e.g. vertebrate pollination, dispersal, obligatory cross-pollination) should be affected by generalist traits. We performed two ecological niche (current future) simulate effects distribution area relation life-history used MIROC-ESM CCSM4 both intermediate (RCP4.5) highest predicted (RCP8.5) GHG emission scenarios, resolution 30' (~1 km2). Habitat high occurrence probability (>80%) reduced (up ~10% trees, ~13% non-arboreous, 10–28% any pollination/reproductive system), greatest reductions In addition, likely concentration plants extreme northeastern portion mesic areas, coincides currently human-modified areas ecosystem, which combined further contract species. conclusion, plant Caatinga highly vulnerable even conservative scenarios future lose much their climatic envelopes. New protected located hosts favorable climate, but is exposed escalating agricultural intensification.