Interdependence between confirmed and discarded cases of dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses in Brazil: A multivariate time-series analysis

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0228347
• Publication Date: 2020-02-03T18:24:00Z
• Authors: Juliane F. Oliveira; Moreno S. Rodrigues; Lacita M. Skalinski; Aline E. S. Santos; Larissa C. Costa; Luciana L. Cardim; Enny S. Paixão; Maria da Conceiçã...; Wanderson K. Oliv...; Maurício L. Barreto; Maria Glória Teix...; Roberto F. S. And...
• Keywords: Zika Virus; Public health surveillance

The co-circulation of different arboviruses in the same time and space poses a significant threat to public health given their rapid geographic dispersion serious health, social, economic impact. Therefore, it is crucial have high quality case registration estimate real impact each population. In this work, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model was developed investigate interrelationships between discarded confirmed cases dengue, chikungunya, Zika Brazil. We used data from Brazilian National Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) 2010 2017. There were three peaks series dengue notification period occurring 2013, 2015 2016. reported both chikungunya reached peak late early VAR shows that on vice versa, suggesting several could actually been Zika. also suggests are almost independent Zika, however, affecting dengue. conclusion, with similar symptoms lead misdiagnosed diseases surveillance system. argue routinely use mathematical statistical models association traditional symptom-surveillance help decrease such errors provide indication possible future outbreaks. These findings address challenges regarding biases shed new light how handle based only clinical-epidemiological criteria when multiples co-circulate