Containment of COVID-19: Simulating the impact of different policies and testing capacities for contact tracing, testing, and isolation

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0247614
• Publication Date: 2021-03-31T17:36:03Z
• Authors: Vincenzo G. Fiore; Nicholas DeFelice; Benjamin S. Glick...; Ofer Perl; Anastasia Shuster; Kaustubh Kulkarni; Madeline O’Brien; M. Andrea Pisauro; Dongil Chung; Xiaosi Gu
• Keywords: Contact tracing; Isolation; Subclinical infection; Pandemic

Efficient contact tracing and testing are fundamental tools to contain the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We used multi-agent simulations estimate daily capacity required find isolate a number infected agents sufficient break chain SARS-CoV-2, so decreasing risk new waves infections. Depending on non-pharmaceutical mitigation policies in place, size secondary infection clusters allowed or percentage asymptomatic paucisymptomatic (i.e., subclinical) infections, we estimated that disease varies between 0.7 9.1 tests per thousand population. However, also found if efficacy dropped below 60% (e.g. due false negatives reduced capability), infections did not always decrease could even increase exponentially, irrespective capacity. Under these conditions, show population-level information about geographical distribution travel behaviour inform sampling aid successful containment, while avoiding concerns government-controlled mass surveillance.