Association between meteorological factors and the prevalence dynamics of Japanese encephalitis

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0247980
• Publication Date: 2021-03-03T19:30:51Z
• Authors: Taotian Tu; Keqiang Xu; Lei Xu; Yuan Gao; Ying Zhou; Yaming He; Yang Liu; Qiyong Liu; Hengqing Ji; Wenge Tang
• Keywords: Culex tritaeniorhynchus; Japanese encephalitis vaccine

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is an acute infectious disease caused by the virus (JEV) and transmitted mosquitoes. Meteorological conditions are known to play a pivotal role in spread of JEV. In this study, zero-inflated generalised additive model long short-term memory were used assess relationship between meteorological factors population density Culex tritaeniorhynchus as well incidence JE predict prevalence dynamics JE, respectively. The previous month, mean air temperature average relative humidity had positive effects on outbreak risk intensity. Meanwhile, all mosquito species livestock sheds (DMSL) only affected risk. Moreover, region-specific prediction was developed Chongqing Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network. Our study contributes better understanding helps local government establish precise prevention control measures.