The effect of control measures on COVID-19 transmission in South Korea

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0249262
• Publication Date: 2021-03-29T17:29:14Z
• Authors: Taeyong Lee; Hee-Dae Kwon; Jeehyun Lee
• Keywords: Social distance; Isolation; Social Isolation; Basic reproduction number

Countries around the world have taken control measures to mitigate spread of COVID-19, including Korea. Social distancing is considered an essential strategy reduce transmission in absence vaccination or treatment. While interventions been successful controlling COVID-19 Korea, maintaining current restrictions incurs great social costs. Thus, it important analyze impact different polices on epidemic. To model outbreak, we use extended age-structured SEIR with quarantine and isolation compartments. The calibrated age-specific cumulative confirmed cases provided by Korea Disease Control Prevention Agency (KDCA). Four measures—school closure, distancing, quarantine, isolation—are investigated. Because infectiousness exposed has controversial, study two major scenarios, considering contributions infection exposed, quarantined, isolated. Assuming rate would increase more than 1.7 times after end a second outbreak expected first scenario. epidemic threshold for contacts between teenagers school reopening 3.3 times, which brings net reproduction number 1. values are higher If average time until reduces from three days two, reduced 60% 47% scenario, respectively. Meanwhile, reduction 33% 41%, respectively, rapid Without wave possible, irrespective whether assume risk exposed. In non-infectivity early detection significantly effective quarantine. Furthermore, quarantining as isolating infectious when that also contribute infection.