Government responses and COVID-19 deaths: Global evidence across multiple pandemic waves

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0253116
• Publication Date: 2021-07-09T18:29:30Z
• Authors: Thomas Hale; Noam Angrist; Andrew J. Hale; Beatriz Kira; Saptarshi Majumdar; Anna Petherick; Toby Phillips; Devi Sridhar; Robin N. Thompson; Samuel Webster; Yuxi Zhang
• Keywords: Pandemic

We provide an assessment of the impact government closure and containment measures on deaths from COVID-19 across sequential waves pandemic globally. Daily data was collected a range policies for 186 countries January 1, 2020 until March 11th, 2021. These were combined into aggregate stringency index (SI) score each country day (range: 0-100). Countries divided successive via mathematical algorithm to identify peaks troughs disease. Within our period analysis, 63 experienced at least one wave, 40 two waves, 10 saw three as defined by approach. regression used assess relationship between strength subsequent related with number controls time country-specific demographic, health system, economic characteristics. Across full analysis 113 countries, increase points SI linked 6 percentage (P < 0.001, 95% CI = [5%, 7%]) lower average daily deaths. In first in that ultimately experiences 3 date, ten additional resulted 21 .001, [8%, 16%]). This effect sustained third wave reductions 28 [13%, 21%]). Moreover, interaction effects show effective reducing all groups countries. findings highlight enduring importance non-pharmaceutical responses over time.