Unravelling long-term impact of water abstraction and climate change on endorheic lakes: A case study of Shortandy Lake in Central Asia

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0305721
• Publication Date: 2024-07-18T17:55:56Z
• Authors: Marzhan Baigaliyeva; Nick Mount; Simon N. Gosling; Suzanne McGowan
• Keywords: Water balance; Outflow; Water use

Endorheic lakes, lacking river outflows, are highly sensitive to environmental changes and human interventions. Central Asia (CA) has over 6000 lakes that have experienced substantial water level variability in the past century, yet causes of recent many remain unexplored. Modelling hydrological processes for CA poses challenges separating climatic change impacts from management due limited data long-term regimes. This study developed a spatially lumped empirical model investigate effects climate abstraction, using Shortandy Lake Burabay National Nature Park (BNNP) as case study. results show significant volume decline 231.7x10 6 m 3 1986 172.5x10 2016, primarily driven by anthropogenic accounting 92% total deficit. The highest rates abstraction (greater than 25% annual outflow) occurred 1989 1993, coinciding with driest period. Since 2013, increased precipitation and, more importantly, reduced abstraction. Despite observational which calibrate model, it performs well. Our analysis underscores modelling data-sparse regions such CA, highlights importance benefits developing lake balance models region.