Estimation of true dates of various flowering stages at a centennial scale by applying a Bayesian statistical state space model

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0317708
• Publication Date: 2025-02-05T18:23:32Z
• Authors: Nagai Shin; Hakuryu Fujiwara; Shinjiro Sugiyama; Hiroshi Morimoto; Taku M. Saitoh
• Keywords: Centennial; Prunus cerasus; Bloom

Evaluation of long-term detailed cherry flowering phenology is required for a deep understanding the sensitivity spring to climate change and its effect on cultural ecosystem services. Neodani Usuzumi-zakura ( Cerasus itosakura ) famous tree in Gifu, Japan. On basis decadal information published World Wide Web, we estimated probability distributions year-to-year variability true dates first (FFL), full bloom (FFB), last (LFB), (LFL) from 1924 2024 by applying Bayesian statistical state space model explained air temperature data. We verified values against records literature private collection. The FFL FFB could be means daily minimum 1 December 28/29 February that mean 31 March, those LFB LFL 10 April. Results were similar when used data recorded at weather stations both km 29 tree. These results indicated our proposed can estimate takes into account centennial-scale nearby station with coarse temporal resolution.