Association between ambient temperature and non-accidental mortality in Guiyang, China: A time-series analysis (2013-2023)

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0319863
• Publication Date: 2025-04-01T20:54:16Z
• Authors: Xuanhao Chen; Minmin Su; Minlan Yuan; Zihai Jian; Dan Yang; Hua Guo; Jianhua Zhang
• Keywords: Distributed lag; Extreme Cold; Extreme heat; Extreme Weather; Mean radiant temperature

Background As climate change intensifies, ambient temperatures have become a global concern, leading to an increasing number of studies examining the impact temperature on human health. Extreme weather events, including heatwaves and cold spells, are becoming more frequent severe. Numerous highlighted positive correlation between non-optimal mortality. Understanding these impacts is crucial for developing targeted public health interventions accurately predicting future burden associated with variability. This study aims estimate relative risks mortality extremes over past decade, focusing contributions both heat cold, as well mild extreme temperatures, identifying vulnerable populations. By doing so, filling regional research gap in Guiyang. Methods We collected daily data from 2013 2023. Descriptive analysis was conducted characterize overall patterns trends during period. A quasi-Poisson regression distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM), incorporating 21-day controlling trends, air pollutants, day week, applied cumulative non-accidental due temperatures. calculated attributable fractions numbers (defined above below mean temperature), using cutoffs at minimum temperature, ranging 97.5th percentile 2.5th temperature) heat). Results total 140,099 deaths were included study.Temperature showed U-shaped associations, except 0-64 years age group. For low effects appeared 2 4 days lasted approximately 18 days, peaking 5, yielding (RRs) 1.24% (95% CI 1.14% 1.36%) high strongest effect observed same day, RR 1.18%(95% 1.03% 1.35%). The fraction 9.21% eCI: 5.32% 12.15%). 5.55% 2.04% 8.59%) 3.67% 1.45% 5.80%), respectively. Mild responsible majority burden. Conclusion had higher risk prolonged compared highest respiratory-related deaths. Additionally, males individuals aged 65 particularly