Modelling potential climate change impacts on sediment yield in the Tsitsa River catchment, South Africa

• DOI: 10.17159/wsa/2021.v47.i1.9446
• Publication Date: 2021-01-29T06:18:14Z
• Authors: Simone Norah Theron; Harold Louw Weep...; Jacobus Johannes...; Christina Johann...
• Keywords: 13. Climate action; Soil erosion; Hydrological modelling; Sediment yield; 0207 environmental engineering; Climate change; Soil and water assessment tool (SWAT); 02 engineering and technology; 15. Life on land; Erosivity; Sedimentation; 6. Clean water

The effects of climate change on water resources could be numerous and widespread, affecting quality security across the globe. Variations in rainfall erosivity temporal patterns, along with changes biomass land use, are some impacts is projected to have soil erosion. Sedimentation watercourses reservoirs, especially water-stressed regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, may hamper resilience. Modelling sediment yield under various scenarios vital develop mitigation strategies which offset negative erosion ensure infrastructure remains sustainable future change. This study investigated relative using Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for a rural catchment South Africa period 2015–2100. Data from six downscaled Coupled Global Climate Models (CGCM) were divided into three shorter time periods, namely, 2015–2034, 2045–2064 2081–2100. Results then compared control scenario observed data 2002–2017. results show that, if left unmanaged, will likely lead greater yield, up 10% more per annum. Peak also increase almost three-fold throughout century. shows that multiple emphasised need considered when embarking resource developments.