Reducing bias and improving precision in species extinction forecasts

• DOI: 10.1890/14-2003.1
• Publication Date: 2014-11-15T01:24:44Z
• Authors: Kevin E. See; Elizabeth E. Holmes
• Keywords: Extinction (optical mineralogy)

Forecasting the risk of population decline is crucial in realm biological conservation and figures prominently viability analyses (PVA). A common form available data for a PVA counts through time. Previous research has suggested that improving estimates trends from count depends on longer observation periods, but often impractical or undesirable. Making multiple observations within single time step an alternative way to gather more without extending period. In this paper, we examine trade‐off between length period over which have been taken total number samples recorded analysis simulated data. We found when ratio process error measurement variance high, precise quasi‐extinction risks can be obtained if replicated are at each step, low, add little benefit precision. These results used efficiently design effective monitoring schemes species concern.